Productivity estimates of the strategic airlift system by the use of simulation

Although the strategic airlift system is under continuous analysis, C-5A problems provided impetus to analyze the airlift system productivity function by using a large-scale simulation model. Development of the simulation model (Simulation of Airlift Resources - SOAR) was initiated by the Office of Secretary of Defense (Systems Analysis) in 1966. SOAR had barely become operational in time for the study in November 1968. Since limited verification and validation tests had been performed on the simulation model, the design of experiments was of critical importance. The experimental design had to be flexible enough to salvage the maximum amount of information possible upon the discovery of either a verification or validation error. In addition, the experimental design was required to accommodate the estimation of a large number of possibly changing independent variables. The experimental design developed for the analysis was full factorial design sets for a finite number of factors. Initial analysis began with aggregated sets of factors at two levels, and information gained from experiment execution was used to parse the sets. The process was sequential and parsing continued until the major explanatory independent variables were identified or enough information was obtained to eliminate the factor from further direct analysis. This design permitted the overlapping of simulation runs to fill out the factorial design sets. In addition to estimating the airlift productivity function, several other findings are reported which tended to disprove previous assumptions about the nature of the strategic airlift system.     

A branch and bound algorithm for allocation problems in which constraint coefficients depend upon decision variables

A branch and bound algorithm is developed for a class of allocation problems in which some constraint coefficients depend on the values of certain of the decision variables. Were it not for these dependencies, the problems could be solved by linear programming. The algorithm is developed in terms of a strategic deployment problem in which it is desired to find a least-cost transportation fleet, subject to constraints on men/materiel requirements in the event of certain hypothesized contingencies. Among the transportation vehicles available for selection are aircraft which exhibit the characteristic that the amount of goods deliverable by an aircraft on a particular route in a given time period (called aircraft productivity and measured in kilotons/aircraft/month) depends on the ratio of type 1 to type 2 aircraft used on that particular route. A model is formulated in which these relationships are first approximated by piecewise linear functions. A branch and bound algorithm for solving the resultant nonlinear problem is then presented; the algorithm solves a sequence of linear programming problems. The algorithm is illustrated by a sample problem and comments concerning its practicality are made.     

A chance-constrained distribution problem

The transportation model with supplies (S_i) and demands (D_i) treated as bounded variables developed by Charnes and Klingman is extended to the case where the S_i and D_i are independently and uniformly distributed random variables. Chance constraints which require that demand at the jth destination will be satisfied with probability at least β_i and that stockout at the ith origin will occur with probability less than α_i are imposed. Conversion of the chance constraints to their linear equivalents results in a transportation problem with one more row and column than the original with some of the new arcs capacitated. The chance-constrained formulation is extended to the transshipment problem.     

Multiple-attribute decision making with partial information: The comparative hypervolume criterion

A new approach is presented for analyzing multiple-attribute decision problems in which the set of actions is finite and the utility function is additive. The problem can be resolved if the decision makers (or group of decision makers) specifies a set of nonnegative weights for the various attributes or criteria, but we here assume that the decision maker(s) cannot provide a numerical value for each such weight. Ordinal information about these weights is therefore obtained from the decision maker(s), and this information is translated into a set of linear constraints which restrict the values of the weights. These constraints are then used to construct a polytope W of feasible weight vectors, and the subsets H_i (polytopes) of W over which each action a_i has the greatest utility are determined. With the Comparative Hypervolume Criterion we calculate for each action the ratio of the hypervolume of H_i to the hypervolume of W and suggest the choice of an action with the largest such ratio. Justification of this choice criterion is given, and a computational method for accurately approximating the hypervolume ratios is described. A simple example is provided to evaluate the efficiency of a computer code developed to implement the method.     

A new storage reduction technique for the solution of the group problem

This paper shows that by making use of an unusual property of the decision table associated with the dynamic programming solution to the goup problem, it is possible to dispense with table storage as such, and instead overlay values for both the objective and history functions. Furthermore, this storage reduction is accomplished with no loss in computational efficiency. An algorithm is presented which makes use of this technique and incorporates various additional efficiencies. The reduction in storage achieved for problems from the literature is shown.     

Multiple-attribute decision making with partial information: The expected-value criterion

We consider the multiple-attribute decision problem with finite action set and additive utility function. We suppose that the decision maker cannot specify nonnegative weights for the various attributes which would resolve the problem, but that he/she supplies ordinal information about these weights which can be translated into a set of linear constraints restricting their values. A bounded polytope W of feasible weight vectors is thus determined. Supposing that each element of W has the same chance of being the “appropriate one,” we compute the expected utility value of each action. The computation method uses a combination of numerical integration and Monte Carlo simulation and is equivalent to finding the center of mass of the bounded polytope W . Comparisons are made with another criterion already presented, the comparative hyper-volume criterion, and two small examples are presented.     

Toward a multi-stage information conversion model of the research and development process

Research and development activities in a business firm or government laboratory are portrayed as a multi-stage information generation and conversion process. A “basic research” phase generates opportunities, in the form of findings in a set of scientific disciplines, which are available for subsequent exploitation. It is assumed that increments to information in a subject area are stochastic, proportional to the amount of knowledge which already exists in the area, and have values which are randomly distributed. An “exploratory development” phase is viewed as a process of selecting a subset of alternative research opportunities, improving each opportunity in the direction of its applications, estimating the value of the improved opportunity and using these estimates to choose the exploratory development results to be implemented in engineering development. The “engineering development” phase makes the value of exploratory results realizable without changing value or risk. Engineering development costs are assumed to increase as value increases. If exploratory development is not successful, additional costs in engineering development must be incurred to bring the design up to a minimum desirable level. The model is intended as a step toward formulating and analyzing problems in management planning and control of the several interrelated stages of the research and development process.     

The Iraq Survey Group: From Weapons of Mass Destruction to Counterinsurgency

The discovery and elimination of Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction (WMD) was a focal point of the Coalition's strategy and operations in the aftermath of Operation ‘Iraqi Freedom’. Despite the failure of the WMD mission to meet expectations after almost two years of intensive operations, the Iraq Survey Group (ISG) was able to integrate multinational and multi-agency forces to provide detailed intelligence regarding the history of Iraq's WMD programs and to assist in the battle against insurgents. The ISG's experience raises the question of whether a standing intelligence force could become a key component in future counterproliferation and counterterrorism efforts around the world.1 ¹The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Dept. of Defense, or the US Government. View all notes     

Book reviews

Norman Cigar, Genocide in Bosnia: The Policy of “Ethnic Cleansing”. College Station, Texas: Texas A&M University Press, 1995. Pp.xiv + 247; app., map, notes, cartoon.

Maria Jose Moyano, Argentina's Lost Patrol: Armed Struggle, 1969–1979. New Haven: Connecticut Yale University Press, 1995. Pp.xiii + 226, biblio., abbreviations, 10 figures, 1 map, tables, index; $25/£16.95. ISBN 0–300–01622–6.

Donald E. Schulz and Deborah Sundloff Schulz, The United States, Honduras, and the Crisis in Central America, Westview Thematic Studies in Latin America, Boulder, Co: Westview, 1994. Pp.368, map, figure, select biblio., abbreviations, index. $52.50/£37.50; (cloth) $17.95/£11.95 (paper). ISBN 0–8133–1324–4 and 1323–6.

Joseph H. Alexander and Merrill L. Bartlett, Sea Soldiers in the Cold War: Amphibious Warfare 1945–1991. Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1995. Pp.iii + 178, 1 map, 29 illus, biblio, index. $32.95. ISBN

Gary P. Cox, The Halt in the Mud: French Strategic Planning from Waterloo to Sedan. Westview Press, 1994. Pp.258, maps, notes, biblio, index. £33.50. ISBN 0–133–1536–0.